Europe's demographic decline is becoming harder to ignore. The average fertility rate fell from 1.53 children per woman in 2019 to 1.34 in 2024, according to the European Statistical Office (Eurostat). Bulgaria and France have the highest rates; Spain, Lithuania, Poland and Italy are at the bottom.

Italy's rate has fallen from 1.27 in 2019 to just 1.14 last year, the lowest in Europe.

What sets Italy apart is not just how few children are being born, but how little its policies do to encourage parents to have them.

Italy offers fathers just 10 days of paternity leave, along with a monthly child allowance and bonuses for daycare, newborns and mothers.

“Scientific research has been saying this for years: one-off financial incentives have no impact on people's behavior,” said Azzurra Rinaldi, an economist and professor at the Sapienza University of Rome. “Why would they persuade a woman to have a child whose care will last for years and change her life forever? And, I would add, hers alone?”

Rinaldi was responding to a survey by activist Francesca Bubba published in La Stampa, that asked why women who wanted children but never had them. The overwhelming theme was caregiving: The burden falls largely on women.

They are calling for mandatory, equal parental leave. The government points instead to three months of leave paid at 80%. But mothers take it in eight out of 10 cases.

Italy could look to Spain, Rinaldi said. Under recent reforms, each parent is entitled to 19 weeks of parental leave, including six mandatory, consecutive weeks immediately after childbirth. The leave is fully paid by the state and cannot be transferred between parents.

Germany offers up to 14 months, with two additional months if both parents take at least two. Families can also receive an incentive when both parents work part-time.

Sweden and Finland guarantee children a place in daycare. Finland gives each parent 160 days of individual, non-transferable paid leave. Portugal provides 28 days of mandatory paternity leave at full pay and free daycare for children born in 2021 or later.

France offers free public schooling from age 3 and a tax system that takes family size into account. In the Netherlands, employees can reduce their working hours to help manage childcare, and employers rarely reject such requests.

The evidence suggests that cash bonuses alone do little. A review of decades of research by Gauthier and Gietel-Basten found that such incentives may prompt couples to have a child sooner than planned, but do not increase the number of children they ultimately have. Daycare and parental leave, by contrast, can make a meaningful difference by helping parents balance work and family life.

Long, inflexible working hours, job insecurity and an unequal division of household chores remain major obstacles.

Poland has introduced a generous universal monthly benefit for every dependent child. Its fertility rate is nevertheless at a record low.

For Rinaldi, the key is not simply financial support but changing expectations.

“One of my daughters will start school in October,” she said. “The school calendar needs to change. And then there's an issue about sexual-emotional education. In Denmark, children take empathy classes, where they learn to care for themselves and others. That's how you change ideas about masculinity and femininity.”

And, ultimately, that is the base of disparity.